How precise is your grind size, and are you using flat or conical burrs? If this question has ever crossed your mind, welcome—you’re part of the growing demographic of coffee prosumers.
We're not just casual drinkers but one of the cognoscenti, people who treat brewing coffee like the art form it is.
Recently, Jason (Editor-in-Chief of THE GOODS, my business partner and husband of 12 years) found himself in a "needs must" situation at Starbucks. No specialty coffee spots in sight, he told me he caved and walked through its doors. The experience? Sticky floors, a croissant that made him want to "weep for the boulangeries de Paris", and a flat white less like a warm embrace and more like liquid resignation.
Now, don't get me wrong, Starbucks still has its place—it's convenient, familiar, and sometimes exactly what you need when you're in an airport at 5 AM or lost in a shopping mall. Side note - some years ago after Cannes Lions, he bought me a wide-brimmed Starbucks mug I spotted on an evening stroll in Nice. It was a lighthearted souvenir back then, but now it’s actually the perfect size for his AeroPress coffee.
Pret Opens in Lisbon, Starbucks Struggles
While he was sipping on that less-than-satisfying Starbucks latte, something far more intriguing was brewing across town. Pret A Manger, the British sandwich chain with a name that sounds both fancy and slightly too ambitious, was opening its first store in Lisbon, right at the Colombo Shopping Centre. Yes, their first home of pre-packed sandwiches and organic coffee, firmly planted in Portuguese soil. One year after the great British debate over the rising cost of a Pret sandwich, the chain is in full bloom, forging ahead with its global expansion.
As of September 17, 2024, Pret boasted global sales surging above £1bn, while Starbucks, on the other hand, was busy reporting its sharpest decline in sales since the pandemic. Global same-store sales dropped 7%, with a 6% dip in the U.S., its largest market, and an even worse 14% plunge in China. It’s a stark contrast—while Pret is expanding into new markets, Starbucks is losing ground. Pret seems to be on an international victory lap, while Starbucks—once the king of mass-produced lattes—finds itself stumbling.
Despite the sticker shock over its sandwiches, Pret’s expansion remains unstoppable, while Starbucks wonders how many more $5.95 lattes it can push before consumers finally abandon ship for home-brewed alternatives. The decline in Starbucks’ fortunes is more than just a temporary hiccup. In an era where coffee drinkers are becoming more discerning, the rise of prosumers—people who brew their own coffee with care, precision and professional paraphernalia—signals another shift in the industry. Starbucks’ $5.95 lattes are increasingly seen as overpriced and uninspired, especially for consumers who prefer single-origin beans, home-brewing kits, and aesthetic experiences. Like the literal G.O.A.T specality roasters La Cabra.
Juicy Notes of Brand Marketing Management and Single-Origin McDonalds in the 90s
Behind these two brands are two very different leaders. Each shaped by their own paths to the top. Starbucks' new CEO, Brian Niccol, arrived at the helm in September 2024, having previously led Taco Bell and Chipotle. Niccol, with his background in fast-casual dining, is known for driving innovation and global growth through a mix of digital technologies and food innovation. He started his careers in the 90s at P&G as an Associate Brand Marketing Director. His experience at Chipotle, and before that at Taco Bell, was about transforming mass-market food experiences and expanding globally—skills he's now applying at Starbucks in an attempt to reverse declining sales.
Meanwhile, at Pret, Pano Christou has spent nearly 24 years working his way up from the shop floor. In the late '90s, while Niccol was climbing the corporate ladder at Procter & Gamble, Christou was a crew member at McDonald's, balancing his job with his studies. Far from a flashy entry into leadership, Christou's experience is rooted in hands-on retail management. His ascent through every level of Pret, from general manager to CEO in 2019, gives him an intimate understanding of both the customer experience and the operational demands of running a global chain.
As both Starbucks and Pret move into 2025, it’s going to be fascinating to see how these leadership styles shape the future of each brand. Will Niccol’s focus on streamlining and innovation help Starbucks regain its footing, or will Christou’s deep connection to Pret’s roots drive even more success for the British chain? One thing’s for sure: as consumer tastes continue to evolve, 2025 will be a pivotal year for both brands in their quest to remain relevant—and profitable—in an increasingly competitive market.
What’s Behind Starbucks’ Financial Woes?
Starbucks’ latest financial results reflect a broader trend: the mass-market coffee experience is losing its appeal. Consumers are no longer content with convenience alone—they’re looking for quality, transparency, and a sense of connection to their coffee. While Starbucks once positioned itself as the go-to for quick, decent coffee, today’s intentional spenders have moved on.
These same consumers are likely the kind of friends who opt for craft non-alcoholic beer, olive oil from a squeeze bottle, and if they’re drinking wine, it’s one of 200 bottles of organic orange from Portugal. They’re not extravagant spenders—they just know what they like and are willing to pay for quality. This intentional spending is where Starbucks is losing ground. People are willing to invest in something that feels special, and Starbucks, with its fast-coffee approach, feels increasingly mass-produced and disconnected from that ethos.
What Starbucks Needs to Do Next
With declining sales and increased competition, Starbucks needs to rethink its strategy. Newly appointed CEO Brian Niccol, who was poached from Chipotle, has promised to address the chain’s growing issues. But how can Starbucks reconnect with an audience that has shifted its focus toward quality, authenticity, and convenience?
Here’s what they need to do:
1. Scale Back the Menu and Focus on Quality
Starbucks' menu has grown into a sprawling collection of sugary seasonal drinks and endless variations. To reconnect with discerning coffee drinkers, it’s time to scale back. Instead of offering every possible flavour and syrup, Starbucks should narrow its focus to a core selection of high-quality, transparent offerings. They could partner directly with specialty coffee bean farmers to source beans with distinct, traceable origins. Imagine a flat white made with beans from a small, ethical farm, with tasting notes clearly displayed, much like you’d find in a specialty coffee shop. By simplifying the menu and highlighting the quality of the beans, Starbucks can appeal to the growing prosumer crowd who care about what’s in their cup.
2. Rebuild the Community Coffeehouse
Starbucks was once a place where people lingered—whether for work, conversation, or simply to enjoy the atmosphere. But over the years, that sense of community has been eroded, replaced by a fast-paced, transactional vibe. To win back customers, Starbucks needs to return to its roots by creating a space where people feel comfortable staying. Ditch the clinical, fast-food feel and bring back cosy corners, comfortable seating, and a slower pace. Even if customers only stay for a few minutes, they should feel like they’re part of something more meaningful than a quick coffee run. It’s about making Starbucks a destination again, not just a pit stop.
3. Empower Baristas to Be Coffee Creators
Instead of baristas churning out drinks in rapid succession, Starbucks should give them the chance to step into a creative role. By scaling back operations and simplifying the menu, Starbucks can give baristas the breathing room to engage with customers and share the story behind the beans they’re serving. Imagine a barista who can talk not just about what’s in a flat white, but where the beans were grown, how they were processed, and why they taste the way they do. Give baristas the chance to showcase their expertise and engage in a more personal way, turning the coffee-making process into an experience, not just a service.
4. Embrace the Prosumer Movement
The rise of prosumers, those who take their coffee brewing into their own hands, is a trend Starbucks can no longer ignore. Why not offer high-quality beans, brewing equipment, or even host cupping events trialling local beans in-store? Expand the Reserve Roastery concept, making it more about local fare, accessible across multiple locations, so customers can experience coffee and craft, challenger snacks and treats. Erewhon but even more localised - perhaps even stocking A2 infused Laurel's? Prosumer customers want to feel connected to the process, and by embracing this, Starbucks can create deeper relationships with a new generation of speciality coffee lovers.
The Rise of RTD Coffee: Another Competitor?
At the same time, Starbucks faces another challenge: the booming market for ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee. The RTD segment is expected to grow by $14.91 billion between 2023 and 2028, with consumers, particularly in the 18-39 age group, opting for canned cold brews and bottled lattes that promise convenience without sacrificing quality. Brands like La Colombe and Stumptown are taking the lead here, and Starbucks’ RTD offerings, though present, often feel like an afterthought compared to these newer, trendier competitors.
If Starbucks wants to stay competitive in the RTD space, they need to innovate. Consumers are increasingly health-conscious, and they’re looking for drinks that offer both flavour and wellness benefits. Not simply AG1 Greens.
Can Starbucks Brew a Comeback?
The future of Starbucks is at a crossroads. It can either continue down the path of fast, convenient coffee that feels increasingly out of touch with its consumers, or it can evolve. By revitalising its in-store experience, empowering baristas, and embracing the prosumer movement, Starbucks can still turn things around. But it needs to act fast. As Pret a Manger opens its doors in Lisbon, Starbucks has to recognise that its place in the coffee world is no longer a given.
For now, I’ll stick to my decaf specialty coffee from one of the many exceptional coffee spots in Lisbon and Jason, his AeroPress at home. Perfectly brewed into my mug from Starbucks in Nice. A little ironic, but hey—it works better than the last Starbucks he visited.
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